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Sanctions risk
By Richard Lough in Antananarivo
Madagascar’s diplomatically
isolated leader risks sanctions and the possible cancellation of critical
foreign aid if he sticks to his hardline stance on how to end his country’s
year-long political crisis. Foreign diplomats warn the Indian Ocean island
could become a pariah state if Andry Rajoelina fails to compromise on a road
map for holding elections that appeases opposition leaders, regional
neighbours and donor nations.
There are signs that the 35-year-old former disc jockey is slowly leaning
towards moderates within his administration who argue he needs international
support and stability to reboot the stagnant economy and soothe the fears of
foreign investors. “In my view, Andry Rajoelina has begun to change his
position, but he’s not yet done enough to convince the international
community he is behind a consensual and inclusive solution,” Guy
Ratrimoarivony, director of the Centre for Diplomatic and Strategic Studies
in Antananarivo, said.
In a last-ditch effort to persuade the European Union (EU) and African Union
(AU) that he is serious about accommodating his political rivals, Rajoelina
told French parliamentarians in Paris last week he proposed creating an
opposition-filled body to check the executive’s power ahead of an eventual
ballot. Both bodies will discuss possible sanctions soon. Former leader Marc
Ravalomanana opened Madagascar’s doors to major foreign companies, and
overseas investment surged to around $1.47 billion to 2008 from $86 million
in 2005. Inflows collapsed during last year’s crisis, but how much is not
clear.
Big foreign miners including Rio Tinto and Sheritt International have driven
outside investment, with extractive industries accounting for $472 million
dollars — or more than 60 percent of FDI inflows — in 2007. The AU’s new
chairman, Malawian President Bingu wa Mutharika, wants the pan-African body
to “declare war” on unconstitutional changes of government, and is expected
to increase the pressure on Rajoelina. “But, as far as sanctions, we are not
sure yet. There are figures in the AU pushing for the imposition of
sanctions, but others want a softer approach,” one AU diplomat said on
condition of anonymity. |
