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Time slipping away for Uribe
re-poll in Colombia
President’s backers admit time is short, but say if the court
approves
it, a referendum could be organised within a few weeks
By Patrick Markey
Colombian President
Alvaro Uribe says only God, the people and the courts will decide
whether he can seek re-election for a third term in May, but he also
faces a race against time even if he wins support to run again. Uribe,
who is Washington’s staunchest ally in South America, faces a March 12
deadline to register as a candidate with several legal hurdles still to
cross before then. Colombia’s constitutional court will opened a debate
on Thursday on whether to approve a re-election law, but the national
registry says it needs two months after a positive court ruling to
organize a referendum for Colombians to vote on amending the
constitution to allow Uribe to run again.
That threatens to keep the 57-year-old Uribe from registering. “Even if
the re-election law gets the nod from the court in the next days, the
schedule for the ensuing referendum looks impossibly tight,” said
Christian Voelkel, an analyst with IHS Global Insight. Uribe first took
office in 2002, was re-elected four years later and remains a popular
leader, largely because of his successful US-backed campaign against
Latin America’s oldest left-wing guerrilla army. He has been evasive on
whether he will run, calling it a “crossroads of the soul”, but his
state machinery has been hard at work on re-election and his supporters
are already looking for other ways to get him on the ballot on May 30.
His bid appeared to take a knock last week when local media said one of
the constitutional court judges had recommended his eight peers reject
the referendum because of irregularities. The court has up to two months
to make a final ruling, but it is organizing extra sessions and plans a
quick decision as pressure builds ahead of the election. That decision
could be to approve or reject the referendum, or even send the law back
to Congress to rectify some of the irregularities, said Jaime Castro, a
constitutional lawyer.
Uribe’s backers admit time is short, but say if the court approves it, a
referendum could be organised within a few weeks. They also argue that
Uribe should be able to register by April 5 — the deadline for
candidates involved in internal party ballots — rather than the March 12
deadline. “I don’t think the window of opportunity has closed,” said
Patrick Esteruelas at Eurasia Group in New York. “I find it extremely
hard to believe if it comes down to a couple of weeks the government
won’t find a way of somehow stretching that deadline.”
If not Uribe, who?
Uribe is the most popular president in recent Colombian history and
his second term saw spectacular successes against rebel leaders of the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. But his political
armour was dented by scandals over rights abuses by troops and
corruption investigations into some of his close allies. A national poll
in November showed his popularity had slipped to 64 per cent, while
Colombians who supported his re-election fell to 52 per cent from 58 per
cent. Uribe was re-elected once in 2006, but the bid to change the
constitution again for him is fuelling worries over the strength of
Colombia’s democracy.
It also draws comparisons to his left-wing neighbours in Venezuela and
Ecuador, criticised for changing their constitutions to extend their
rule. Wall Street applauds Uribe’s security and pro-investment policies,
and local stocks and bonds could see a brief sell-off should he not run.
The peso currency dipped after the judge’s recommendation that the court
reject his bid. But any candidate who replaces Uribe in the presidential
palace will stick closely enough to his popular line that a dramatic
shift away from his basic policies is unlikely. Political parties are
already manoeuvering to shore up positions should he be unable to seek a
third consecutive term running the world’s No 3 coffee-producing
country. |
